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The research of limit of safety of company of partial project machinery and ana
From;    Author:Stand originally
 

With the market general point of view differs, the fluctuant interval that we returned to a model to calculate ROE of future of company of project machinery industry through a distributinging lag, pass estimation of the P/B=ROE/Ke below reasonable condition for the foundation with this each company PB. The result shows the part precedes company share price already had relatively sufficient safe limit, maintain the couplet in be opposite to weigh what division, Liu Gong and hill push stock to add hold grade.

Analyse photograph comparing with the simple statistic that is based on historical data, our conclusion is in the following two respects provide rationality more:

(1) we are added in ROE and FAI fast, the correlativity that has statistical significance was built between PPI, can estimation is different the enterprise ROE level that fixed assets investment and cost change the condition falls, have better extrapolate sex consequently;

(2) included pair of considerations that performance difference gives birth to inside different company, avoided the confine of cost of simple calculation replacement thereby.

ROESA=36.79 0.86ROESA(-1) 0.40DFAI(1)-0.33PPI(-1) is the model that we decide finally, among them ROESA is the net assets yield after classics season is adjusted, DFAI is fixed assets investment is added fast first-order difference is divided. Model whole has statistical significance and the symbol of each correlation coefficient all has logical economic meaning, accordingly we believe the model is effective.

Be based on afore-mentioned models our estimation 5 keys dog the ROE of future of project machinery company and PB, heavy division of the couplet in making clear as a result, Liu Gong and hill push stock PB of current price correspondence already had safe limit gradually, and join forces of 31 heavy industry, Anhui criterion on the high side.

In addition, we believe project machine already became the gain in mechanical industry to increase the richest flexibility child industry. Accordingly, the positive change aux will be able to that macroscopical economy level appears reflects the improvement that is company profit quickly. We are added to investment of prospective fixed assets fast granted to slant to be forecasted at what guard, but the likelihood that believes the industry after 08Q4 moves environmental existence to improve likewise.

Of course, the analytic conclusion that is based on several manage statistic and business are main the range still occurs actually certain difference, our conjectural and lesser sample size, slant little independent variable amount all be the cause that causes this kind of error likely, this needs persistent correction and combine the judgement of main to the company area.


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