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Mechanical industry will send tall steel price to receive low demand
From;    Author:Stand originally

Invest a point:

Weak city prices is mechanical board piece run lose the market. 3 quarters are mechanical board piece drop 31.46% , drop a prep above market is average level, among them machine of the shipbuilding of strong cycle, project drops a house before.

Macroscopical environment has 4 quarters hard improve. 7 - the industrial production August and investment data all are shown glide trend, especially estate investment is added fast glide faster, the macroscopical environment that predicts industry of 4 quarters machinery is faced with has hard improve.

Impact of active finance policy is local. Entrance component drawback turns operation of national capital gold is difficult; The equipment demand that transition of value added tax brings is controlled in 33 billion yuan about; Basis before experience, vigorous finance policy changes the moving trend of mechanical industry very hard, more the substantial that looks anteroom real estate invests to already occupied domestic fixed assets to invest what is more,the rather that.

Trade demand adds 4 quarters machine fast or will glide quickly. Integrated afore-mentioned elements, we think industry of 4 quarters machinery may be faced with demand to add fast the circumstance that glides quickly, it may be said sends Gao Gang price, receive low demand.

Railroad, be defeated change report and growth of solar energy equipment are affirmatory. Child in the industry, railroad equipment, be defeated change electric equipment and solar energy generate electricity equipment future growth is affirmatory, and machine tool tool and project machine, heavy mine machinery will still continue boom is ordinal the trend of fall after a rise. Put in the risk:

Credit policy is loosened suddenly apparently. If domestic Central Bank stems from the consideration that defends economy and financial safety, loosen credit suddenly considerably, criterion domestic investment and mechanical equipment demand will be good at anticipating.

Comprehensive assessment and grade are adjusted.

Grade of mechanical industry neutral. In cycle of economic be issued to lower levels, mechanical industry boom also be issued to lower levels, keep neuter grade. Child electric equipment is maintained to add in the industry hold grade; Railroad equipment although demand growth is clear, but bibcock company estimate is worth on the high side, give neuter grade; Machine tool tool and project machine, heavy mine machinery keep neuter grade. Recommend Tian Wei to protect change (600550) , smooth tall electric (machine tool of 600312) , Kunming (600806) and east are electric (600875) , but also submit to at the same time investor notes avoid system risk.

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